Boise State’s BCS Watch: Vol. 1

7 10 2011

Last week, we all saw a very un-Boise State-like performance by the Broncos who put up their lowest scoring output of the season in their 30-10 victory over Nevada.

142 yards passing?  Two interceptions? Okay, did someone kidnap the REAL Kellen Moore, and replace him with some mediocre look-a-like?

Obviously Moore was due for a bad game, but, boy, did he pick the worst week to have it.

Boise State are currently battling LSU, who were victorious over Kentucky, Alabama, who defeated Florida, and Wisconsin, who, lead by Russell Wilson, whipped Nebraska in the Cornhuskers inaugural Big Ten conference game.

All of these programs seemed much more efficient, and dangerous than the Broncos, which ultimately pushed Boise State down from 4th to 5th in the AP 25 Poll, and have Stanford and Oklahoma State nipping at their heels.

This week, Boise State’s push to regain ground in the polls will start with their visit to Fresno State on Friday night.  Hopefully, Boise State remember how to put up their video game-esque numbers if they expect to get their ship back on course.

 

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs

It’s not a understatement in the very least  to say that the Broncos have owned the Bulldogs as of late.  Fresno State’s coach Pat Hill is a measly 1-9 against the Broncos.

Boise State have racked up 51 points or more in their last three games against Fresno State, with their last victory a 51-0 drubbing of the Bulldogs on the blue turf in 2010.

For Boise State, the emphasis should be on consistency.   In a league that is one part wins and losses, one part strength in schedule, and one part style, the Broncos really need to rely on the style aspect the most, and by style we mean go big or go home.

Stringing together wins is one thing, but, consistently stringing together large-margine victories, and limiting points against will help boost a program’s credibility even in the smallest of conferences.

Starting tonight, the Broncos high-octane offense can not take its foot off the gas for any reason.  Pump up the numbers, run the scoreboard up and prove that this program is worth something.  On the other side of the ball, Boise State should  really  buckle down on defense.  If this unit can hold the Bulldogs (52nd in the nation in points scored per game) to a low scoring output, then the voters may see Boise State as somewhat of a more legit program than what they are now.

Kellen Moore had one off game last week at Nevada.  Fine.  Every great quarterback has one.  The spotlight will shine heavily on Moore against Fresno State as people want to see how the standout pivot will bounce back.  With a bum knee, will Kellen Moore be as mobile as he was in the past?  Are the two interceptions thrown last week a sign of Moore coming down to Earth, proving he is but a mere mortal?

Boise State can not afford to go back-to-back weeks of mediocrity.  Chris Petersen must use Fresno State as a tool to not only rev the programs engines in the AP 25 Poll, but, to flex the Broncos muscles in their claim of being a legit contender for the BCS National Championship.  Remember, Boise State still haven’t gone against TCU, Air Force or San Diego State yet-the Mountain West Conference’s “dragons” in the Broncos quest of conquering the BCS system.

As mentioned earlier, the Broncos sit 5th in the AP 25 Poll with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Wisconsin ahead of them, and, Oklahoma State and Stanford just below them.

In order for Boise State to make any sort of positive movement this week, the Broncos must first return to their old selves and really shine against Fresno State.  This means Kellen Moore must be on his A-game and have a spotless…well…interception-free night, along with big numbers in the air.  Running back Doug Martin has to mirror the production of last week.  A plethora of points is a must as well.  Also, let’s try and not miss any of those PAT’s this week.  As for the defense, again, a sound, suffocating unit has to show up.  The name of the game is “Goose Egg” and the rules are simple-don’t let Fresno State score.

If this comes together all that’s left is…

 

Boise State ideally need the Texas Longhorns to win the Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, Florida to stun LSU at Death Valley, Vanderbilt over Alabama and Colorado to be the black cat to Stanford’s “Luck”.

Realistically, Alabama is going to let Trent Richardson run wild over the Commodores all afternoon, and Colorado will fall victim to the Cardinal offense that just doesn’t stop pouring on points.

As for the Gators stunning the Tigers of LSU…this is a longshot, but, a possibility.  Strange things happen in these big time SEC games.

Oklahoma has not won back-to-back games against the Longhorns since 2003 and 2004, but, the higher-ranked program is 9-2 since 2000.  As much as it would be nice to see a major upset this week, chances are, we may not get one.  Landry Jones and the Sooners offense are just too well oiled to fall to the young, inexperienced Longhorns…this year.  Sorry, Case McCoy.  Unfortunately, you will not have the same luck older brother Colt had in his first game out against the Sooners.  Better luck next year, bud.

The forecast doesn’t look good for Boise State this week.  If all goes accordingly, then, even with a win over Fresno State, the Broncos will actually lose ground in the polls again this week as Stanford will slip in ahead of them.  However, going back to style, if the Cardinal can’t stay consistent with their play over the past few weeks and struggle against Colorado, Boise State could remain in the fifth spot.

 

However…

 

Boise State’s Mathematic Equations:

 

Boise State win over Fresno State + LSU WIN over Florida + Alabama win over Vanderbilt + Oklahoma win over Texas + Stanford win over Colorado + idle Wisconsin= Boise State 6th (1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Wisconsin, 5. Stanford…6. Boise State)

Boise State win over Fresno State + LSU win over Florida + Alabama win over Vanderbilt + Oklahoma LOSS to Texas + Stanford win over Colorado + idle Wisconsin= Boise State 5th (1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Stanford, 5. Boise State)

Boise State win over Fresno State + LSU loss to Florida + Alabama win over Vanderbilt + Oklahoma win over Texas + Stanford win over Colorado + idle Wisconsin= Boise State 4th (1. Oklahoma, 2. Alabama, 3. Wisconsin, 4. Boise State, 5. Stanford)

Boise State win over Fresno State + LSU loss to Florida + Alabama win over Vanderbilt  + Oklahoma LOSS to Texas + Stanford win over Colorado + idle Wisconsin= Boise State 3rd (1. Alabama, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Boise State, 4. Stanford, 5. Oklahoma State)

Boise State win over Fresno State + LSU LOSS to Florida + Alabama LOSS to Vanderbilt + Oklahoma LOSS to Texas + Stanford LOSS to Colorado + idle Wisconsin= Boise State 2nd (1. Wisconsin, 2. Boise State, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Clemson, 5. Oregon)

Boise State LOSS to Fresno State= No BCS National Championship.  

 

 

 

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