This conference is just a powerhouse. Over the last five years, the MWC has a 51.0 (26-25) winning percentage against BCS conference programs which ranks third in the category behind the SEC (39-27) and the Pac-10 (28-24)
The Mountain West Conference may be the youngest out of all the conferences in the FBS, but, let’s all face the facts, the MWC is hands down one of the most exciting and explosive conferences in the game right now. It’s no longer considered an “upset” when a BCS conference school loses to a program within the MWC (yeah, in 2009 Oklahoma and Oregon State fell to BYU, California and Louisville dropped their games to Utah, and Clemson couldn’t pull the trigger on TCU) and you can expect this trend to continue in 2010.
Air Force and Wyoming are definitely programs that are on their way up. The Falcons could put on a good show on September 18th against Oklahoma, and maybe, just, maybe, the Wyoming Cowboys will stick around and make a game out of it against the Longhorns of Texas on September 11th. Even if they don’t, there’s always the chance of these two dark horses playing the role of spoilers and ultimately make a mess within the conference. Come on, who wouldn’t want to see Wyoming ruin Utah’s going away party?
TCU returns 18 starters from last year and are set to take the MWC title again and block Utah from a “farewell title”. Hey, Utah, the biggest mistake you will ever make is packing up and heading to the Pac-10. USC, Oregon and Oregon State are programs that will be sitting atop of the Pac-10 mountain for many years to come, and the Utes should be prepared to keep the conference basement warm during their stay. So long, Utah, your 2010 season will be marred with disappointment, no final MWC crown, and a mediocre record at best. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Okay, let’s talk the rest of the conference…
BYU may have lost QB Max Hall, but, Jake Heaps could be just as big as his predessor. Sure he’s just a freshman, but, Heaps will provide the same electricity and power that Hall did during his career at BYU. The Cougars may not be ready for another conference title yet, but, give it a couple years. It wouldn’t be a shock to anyone if BYU finishes third or even fourth in the conference considering they have a lot of work ahead of them.
San Diego State may have one of the most underrated QB’s in the conference in Ryan Lindley. Lindley had a pretty stellar 2009 season finishing second statistically in the MWC, and will only get better considering the great chemistry he has with his receiving core. The passing game can’t do all the work for the offense, so, this year the Aztecs need more out of their backfield. Walter Kazee and Brandon Sullivan can’t use the same tactics as last season that saw the SDSU ground game finishing dead last in the rushing department in the conference.
All was well for Wyoming in 2009 after a new coach and a new QB helped lead the Cowboys to a 4-4 MWC record, and 7-6 overall, not to mention their 35-28 victory over Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl (which was one Hell of a game by the way). This Wyoming team is likely to be the spoilers of the conference and could creep up the standings, however, the fact that their two leading rushers, John Fletcher and Mitch Urein are gone, the run game could be a little suspect and hold the Cowboys down.
Sorry, Lobos fans, but New Mexico will yet again occupy the cellar of the Mountain West. The schedule will not be Lobos-friendly in 2010 as their non conference games include a visit to Eugene, Oregon to start the season against the Ducks, then they host Texas Tech, and also take on a conference title hungry UTEP team. Oh, not to mention New Mexico finishes the season with games against BYU and TCU. Hang in there, Lobos fans, the bright side is that New Mexico will only build from last year’s 1-11 finish. Yep, they could very well finish with two or even three wins, at best. Like I said, it’s not going to be a fun season out in Albuquerque.
Mountain West Conference Predictions
1. TCU Horned Frogs- The Horned Frogs return QB Andy Dalton who could potentially battle with Alabama’s Mark Ingram, Case Keenum of Houston and the gun-slinger out of Boise State- Kellen Moore for the Heisman Trophy. Dalton could land himself some going away hardware if he uses his leadership and big play skills to another perfect season and a BCS Championship berth. Oh, yes. If the stars align properly, we could see the first ever non BCS conference BCS Championship game, and rematch of last season’s Fiesta Bowl between Boise State and the Frogs. The schedule seems like it plays into TCU’s favor, and the experience returning (18; 9 offense, 7 defense, kicker and punter) will be the ultimate advantage for the Horned Frogs to capture their second consecutive MWC title. Yes, TCU fans, the prediction is in, and how do you go against a second consecutive undefeated schedule? You just can’t. Expect the Frogs to be knocking on the BCS title door come January. The only thing keeping TCU from the championship game… a stupid computer.
2. Utah Utes- The Utes opener against Pittsburgh will be the deal breaker early on; a loss here will send Utah tumbling down the top 25 and lost in the mix for the rest of the season, however, a win could be the initial spark that will get things rolling, and based on their schedule, their next “big” showdown comes against TCU on November 6th which will ultimately be the unofficial conference championship game.
3. BYU Cougars
4. Air Force Falcons
5. Wyoming Cowboys
6. Colorado State Rams
7. San Diego State Aztecs
8. UNLV
9. New Mexico Lobos
Top 25 Alert: TCU Horned Frogs, Utah Utes (barely…)
Games to Watch in 2010
September 2- Pittsburgh at Utah
September 4- TCU at Oregon State
September 11- Wyoming at Texas
September 18- Air Force at Oklahoma
October 16- BYU at TCU
November 6- TCU at Utah
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